European recycled LDPE bale prices eased this week as the rush to ship material out ahead of the EU's November 21 export restriction began to lose momentum, while natural HDPE bales in the US moved higher. Rising virgin PET costs kept European rPET flake from falling further, and climbing diesel and freight costs continued to weigh on recyclers across the US, Europe, and Asia.

As of Oct. 27, 2026, the recycled plastics market is being pulled in different directions by a looming EU trade deadline, firmer virgin resin costs, and a steady rise in logistics expenses. None of the three is new on its own, but together they are starting to reshape near-term pricing across grades.

Three Factors Shaping This Week's Market

1. The EU export rush is losing steam as the shipping window closes. With the November 21 non-OECD export ban approaching, European LDPE bale prices eased this week after weeks of deadline-driven buying. One bale buyer called the current pace a final push and expects prices to soften further over the next two weeks as the window to ship narrows.

2. Firmer virgin costs are lifting rPET more than recycled polyolefins. Brent crude and PET feedstock prices moved up, pulling virgin PET higher in Europe. That kept European rPET flake prices from slipping further, even as demand elsewhere in the recycled chain stayed mixed.

3. Diesel and freight costs are squeezing recyclers in every region. US sources reported trucking rates more than doubling in some areas over the past three months, pointing mainly to diesel costs. European recyclers cited the same pressure from elevated energy and fuel prices.

Key Grade Performance: Europe and the US

rLDPE Market European bale prices eased as the export-ban rush began to fade, while translucent, black, and grey pellet prices held steady. Recyclers' attempts to push through a €15–20/mt increase for early November met resistance from converters. In the US, bale prices moved up on firm domestic demand, and export activity was reported to be picking up as well.

rHDPE Market US natural HDPE bale prices rose this week, and natural pellet prices were also reported higher. Mixed-color bales held steady, and demand was described as ranging from weak to fair. European natural pellet prices softened over the same period.

rPP and Styrenics European rPP prices were stable, with recyclers leaning toward a rollover into November. In styrenics, rPS eased slightly and rABS held steady, with recyclers pointing to inventory buildup and a seasonal slowdown arriving earlier than usual this year.

Key Company, Trade and Regulatory Updates

European Union: The November 21 non-OECD export ban is now easing bale demand as the shipping window closes. Separately, on October 21, the European Commission opened a public consultation on bio-based feedstock in plastic packaging. The feedback will inform its assessment of the technological development and environmental performance of bio-based plastic packaging.

UK and EU: Possible PET safeguard measures remain uncertain. The UK Trade Remedies Authority opened a safeguard investigation into PET imports on August 5, covering both virgin PET and recycled PET within the specified viscosity range. A preliminary determination is scheduled for December 2026, if required. Market sources expect possible provisional measures around that time, with Vietnam widely expected to be exempt, although no decision has been announced. No equivalent EU safeguard investigation or measure has been announced. Distributors noted that potential supply curbs from Indonesia, Malaysia, and China could affect recyclers more than virgin producers, depending on the final scope of any measures and existing import arrangements.

Market Takeaway

Last week's EU bale rally is starting to unwind as the November 21 deadline draws closer: Grade B LDPE bale prices eased, buyers expect further softening, and pellet buyers pushed back on a proposed November increase. That tracks with the earlier read that the bale strength may have been a deadline effect rather than a lasting shift — though how it plays out from here will depend on how much scrap stays in Europe and how OECD export flows adjust once the ban takes hold.

Virgin resin cost increases are filtering through unevenly. They appear to be holding European rPET flake prices steady, while HDPE recyclers say the gains so far are too small to move margins. The common thread across regions is rising diesel and freight costs, which are pushing up collection and delivery costs for recyclers in the US, Europe, and Asia alike. Regenport will continue monitoring these developments and share updates as the market picture evolves.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are European LDPE bale prices falling in late October 2026? Bale prices are easing because the rush to export material ahead of the EU's November 21 non-OECD export ban is fading as the shipping window to meet that deadline narrows.

Is the EU banning plastic scrap exports entirely? No — the measure taking effect November 21, 2026 restricts exports of certain plastic waste to non-OECD countries; it does not ban scrap trade with OECD destinations. OECD-bound exports aren't exempt either: from May 21, 2026, they require a prior notification and consent procedure under the same regulation, just not the outright restriction applied to non-OECD destinations.

Why haven't rising virgin plastic prices lifted recycled HDPE prices more? Recyclers report that recent virgin cost increases have been too small to meaningfully improve HDPE margins, even though the same cost pressure has helped hold European rPET flake prices steady.

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