Our previous coverage examined September's sharp year-over-year rise in color HDPE bale prices, when natural HDPE was still moving in the opposite direction. The October data from the same source — RecyclingMarkets.Net, reported by Resource Recycling — shows that rally spreading rather than just continuing: natural HDPE rose month-over-month after easing for several months from its spring peak, and post-consumer PP posted a gain too. PET, meanwhile, kept moving in the opposite direction, falling to 2.53 cents per pound — down both month-over-month and year-over-year.

The October national averages — read here as US market data, on the same reasoning as our previous coverage (see FAQ below) — show diverging movement across grades: color HDPE bales reached 11.13 cents per pound, up about 29% from September's 8.66 cents and up about 242% from 3.25 cents a year earlier. Natural HDPE bales reached 40.25 cents per pound, up about 10% from September's 36.50 cents, though still down about 10% from 44.63 cents a year earlier. Post-consumer PP bales reached 7.19 cents per pound, up about 19% from September's 6.06 cents and up about 29% from 5.56 cents a year earlier. Post-consumer PET bales fell to 2.53 cents per pound, down about 3% from September's 2.61 cents and down about 44% from 4.50 cents a year earlier. (The source article doesn't state these percentages; they're calculated here from the cents-per-pound figures it reports.)

A Rally That's No Longer Just About Color

Our previous coverage described a narrower story: one HDPE grade up sharply, the other still easing. October changes that shape. Natural HDPE rose month-over-month after easing for several months from its spring 2026 peak, though it remains well below where it stood a year ago, so this reads as an early reversal rather than a confirmed one. PP's gain adds a second, separate grade to the move. Taken together, October looks less like a color-HDPE-specific quirk and more like broader momentum building across recycled polyolefin bales — though one month of data isn't enough to call that a trend.

PET is the reminder that this isn't a blanket "recycled commodity prices are rising" story. It kept falling in October, both month-over-month and year-over-year, to 2.53 cents per pound. Whatever is lifting HDPE and PP bale prices this month, it isn't lifting all recycled grades together.

Bale Price, Not Pellet Price

As explained in our previous coverage, every figure above is a bale price, not a finished pellet price, and bale cost is only one input into what a pellet costs. That distinction matters more, not less, now that several grades are moving at once: a buyer comparing a pellet quote to "the bale market" this month should still ask a supplier to separate out how much of any quote change reflects bale cost versus processing and margin, and for which specific grade.

Virgin PE Market Signals to Watch

Separate reporting on Dow's October 22 third-quarter earnings call offers a contrast point on the virgin side. CEO Karen Carter said she expects pricing momentum to carry into 2027, citing an American Chemistry Council estimate that September US polyethylene inventory fell by 400 million pounds and five days of supply — the largest draw in over a year — alongside nominated PE contract increases totaling 12 cents per pound across October and November, and global ethylene operating rates in the low 80s percent amid war-related production constraints in the Middle East. That reporting is about virgin PE, not recycled HDPE or PP, and doesn't mention recycled material at all. It's included here only as a parallel data point: when virgin momentum built in a similar way earlier this year, it coincided with the spring bale-price run-up covered in our previous coverage — worth watching for whether a similar pattern shows up in bale pricing again, not a claim that it will.

What This Means for Recycled HDPE and PP Buyers

• Confirm which grade a quote is benchmarked to. Color HDPE, natural HDPE and PP all moved differently again this month — "HDPE is up" doesn't say which one, or by how much.

• Separate bale cost from pellet cost in any quote conversation. A bale-level swing doesn't pass through to a pellet price on the same percentage or timeline.

• Watch virgin pricing without assuming a direction. Track the recycled-to-virgin price spread as Dow anticipates continued virgin PE pricing momentum into 2027 — a forecast, not a confirmed trend.

• Don't extend an HDPE or PP reading to PET, or to recycled commodities generally. PET moved the opposite direction in the same month and the same report.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did HDPE bale prices rise in October 2026? Yes. Color HDPE rose about 29% month-over-month (and about 242% year-over-year). Natural HDPE rose about 10% month-over-month, though it remained about 10% below year-earlier levels.

Did PP bale prices move the same way? Yes. Post-consumer PP rose about 19% month-over-month and 29% year-over-year, following the same upward direction as color HDPE.

Does this mean recycled HDPE and PP prices will keep climbing? Not necessarily. The reporting doesn't give a stated cause for October's moves, and one month of data doesn't establish a trend.

Does this apply to PET or other recycled grades too? No. Post-consumer PET bale prices fell again in October, both month-over-month and year-over-year, to 2.53 cents per pound.

Are these US national averages? The figures are treated as US national averages based on the reporting context, though the source articles don't name a country explicitly — see our previous coverage for the full reasoning. Regional prices may differ; buyers needing region-specific figures should confirm directly with a supplier.

About This Article

Informational summary based on October 2026 national bale-pricing data reported by Resource Recycling/RecyclingMarkets.Net and separate reporting on Dow's Q3 2026 earnings call. It is not trading, pricing, or investment advice. Bale prices vary by region, grade, and buyer; confirm current pricing directly with a supplier before relying on it.

Image generated with ChatGPT

Sources

RecyclingMarkets.net Staff, Resource Recycling, "HDPE, PP prices climb for October" → Read the Source

Antoinette Smith, Resource Recycling, "Dow bullish on PE pricing into 2027" → Read the Source